Futurism Development of Date Processing Industry (Case Study: Sistan and Baluchestan Province)

Introduction
Sistan and Baluchestan Province has capabilities in the field of dates and tropical fruits. On the other hand, a look at the indicators of the development of the province and comparison with the average of the country and other provinces shows that in the programs of the province in order to achieve the goals of development to establish activities An economy based on the province's potentials has not been considered. Prioritizing the development of date processing industries in Sistan and Baluchestan with a futurology approach can be effective in drawing the outlook of the province on the path of development. Therefore, in the present study, after identifying the drivers, various scenarios of formulation and effective strategies for the development of the date processing industry are presented. For this purpose, effective propellants were first identified by experts in the field of palm cultivation and industry in the province and then the analysis of information was carried out by the matrix of mutual works and software of Mic Mac. Finally, the scenarios are designed using the Expert Panel method and with Wiezard Scenario Software. According to the findings of the study in the selected scenario, appropriate infrastructure (water, electricity, gaz) under probable conditions, driving access to roads in pessimistic conditions، Business rules and regulations are under optimistic conditions, the willingness of investors to invest in pessimistic conditions and access to domestic and foreign markets in optimistic conditions. Therefore, the construction of specialized palm industrial towns with an approach based on facilitating the launch of date processing industries، amending the rules and regulations is recommended to encourage investors in the palm processing industry and to establish date processing industry in the province.
 
Methodology
In the present study, the factors influencing the development of palm processing industries in Sistan and Balochestan were first identified by 15 experts in the field of palm industry in the General Department of agricultural jihad of Sistan and Balochestan province and experts in industrial towns of Zahedan city and traders of palm industry, which includes 10 main drivers, in the form of interviews and questionnaires over two months. The open questionnaire that examines these factors was then completed by experts and experts. The mic mac  software was then used to analyze the information from the cross-effects Matrix, and the propulsions checked the effectiveness of each propulsion relative to other propulsion. Each propulsion correlated with its own zero poor correlation one, medium two and high correlation three entered. By analyzing the indicators, a matrix was created with dimensions of 10 by 10 with a degree of filling of 85. The direct and indirect effects of the engines on each other were examined and five main engines were obtained. After the five drivers were obtained, the second questionnaire was compiled and made available to palm sector specialists, who examined the drivers in probable, optimistic and pessimistic conditions, and their effectiveness was examined as severe, medium and weak limiters, without impact, severe, medium and weak reinforcers, and the scenario method was used using the Wizard scenario software, and finally three scenarios were obtained for the development of palm processing industries in Sistan and Balochestan. The stages of the research include identifying the primary factors influencing the development of palm processing industries in Sistan and Balochestan provinces, Delphi specialists using the matrix of interaction in the form of the first stage questionnaire, using the method of structural analysis using the mic mac software, Delphi specialists using the matrix of interaction (the second stage questionnaire) and then obtaining scenarios using the Wizard scenario software.
 
Findings
Of the 10 selected propellants, 5 are located in the first region and are located in the Northeast and northwest of the figure, and their impact rate is greater than their impact rate. These factors include the creation of appropriate infrastructure (water, electricity, gaz), road access, business rules and regulations, the willingness of investors to invest, access to domestic and foreign markets. Factors such as improving the quality of production dates and training the output workforce of the system are high and have a high impact rate compared to other factors. The interaction analysis method used in this study evaluates possible future scenarios and is used to facilitate the processing of qualitative information and the analysis of the perspective of experts. Finally, the first scenario is that the right infrastructure (water, electricity, gas) is in a possible situation, access to roads is in a pessimistic situation, business rules and regulations are in an optimistic situation, the willingness of investors to invest in a pessimistic situation and access to domestic and foreign markets is in an optimistic situation. It has the highest percentage of probability of occurrence and is more likely to occur than other scenarios.
 
Discussion and conclusions
Dates are one of the important agricultural products in the country that has high potential for export, but lack of supplementary industries and lack of attention to product processing, lack of cold storage، Inappropriate packaging has affected domestic consumption and exports, and Sistan and Baluchestan farmers face many problems in this regard. It is possible to create a palm value chain and produce high value added byproducts to increase the export of this product and increase the income of farmers due to the high unemployment rate in the region. The date processing industry and the growth of the date value chain and the increase of profitability and development of suitable manufacturing industries with international standards regarding byproducts are of great importance in the region. In this study, the prioritization of the development drivers of date processing industries in Sistan and Baluchestan with a futuristic approach has been investigated. Targeted interviews were conducted with experts from the Kharma department of the province and the information obtained from the ten propellants was analyzed by the cross-effect matrix and finally three scenarios of the five major propellants included Creating suitable infrastructure for water, electricity, gas, access to roads, business rules and regulations, willingness of investors to invest, access to domestic and foreign markets was achieved. According to the findings of the study, the first scenario ranked first with 53/19 percent. In this scenario, suitable infrastructure (water, electricity, gaz) under probable conditions, propulsion for road access under pessimistic conditions, business rules and regulations under optimistic conditions، The willingness of investors to invest in cynical conditions and access to domestic and foreign markets is in optimistic conditions . reforming the laws and regulations ، Facilitating access to domestic and foreign markets and developing and improving infrastructure can be considered as a propellant in the province’s plans for creating and expanding date-based industries. Export potential is a factor in improving and expanding these  industries, and continuous access to target countries is a very important factor. According to the results, solutions such as the construction of specialized palm industrial towns with an approach based on facilitating the launch of date processing industries, reforming the rules and regulations to encourage the oven industry.