Introduction
Rapid urbanization over the past few decades has fundamentally reshaped the physical, environmental, and social fabric of Ahvaz, often at the cost of long-term ecological resilience. Characterized by unchecked spatial expansion, a disproportionate concentration of socio-economic activities within the city core, deteriorating air and water quality, and the persistent decline of urban green space, Ahvaz faces profound challenges that signal a deviation from sustainable development trajectories. In response, this research adopts the paradigms of “Green City” and “Ecological City” as strategic frameworks to reconceptualize and reorganize urban growth. The primary objective is to critically evaluate the historical physical-spatial development patterns of Ahvaz while identifying optimal zones for future expansion toward the 1420 planning horizon. By bridging the gap between urban green management and ecological planning, this study underscores the necessity of achieving balanced spatial distribution—a critical prerequisite for mitigating environmental degradation, curbing urban hazards, and fostering urban resilience. Ultimately, this research aims to provide a robust, evidence-based roadmap for stakeholders to pivot away from ecologically costly expansion and toward a model that prioritizes spatial justice and the quality of urban life.
 
Methodology
This study adopts an applied, descriptive-analytical research design characterized by an exploratory approach to mapping the physical-spatial development of Ahvaz. To ensure a comprehensive assessment of sustainable development potential, a multidimensional set of natural and environmental criteria was synthesized through an extensive literature review, expert consultation, and the integration of organizational datasets, subsequently digitized into geographic information layers. Given the inherent heterogeneity of urban and environmental data, the study employed Fuzzy Logic to standardize variables and mitigate uncertainty, followed by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to rigorously weight criteria, ensuring consistency through an audited compatibility rate. The final phase involved integrating these weighted layers within a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment via spatial overlay analysis. This methodology yields a high-precision land suitability zoning map, facilitating an integrated analysis that allows for the identification of zones where physical development is intrinsically compatible with ecological preservation principles.
 
Findings
The analytical output of this research classifies potential expansion areas into five distinct suitability zones, ranging from “very high” to “very low” capacity for physical growth. By synthesizing natural features with regional development variables, the findings reveal a clear spatial bifurcation in the city’s growth potential. Specifically, the most promising prospects for sustainable expansion are concentrated in the northwest and southwest corridors. In contrast, expansion toward the northeast, and certain sectors of the north and south, are significantly constrained by complex environmental and anthropogenic factors. These spatial limitations include critical intersections with heavy industrial complexes, high-value agricultural lands, sensitive riparian zones along the river, and the encroaching development of Kot Abdullah. This zoning map acts as a vital tool for urban planners, delineating where growth can proceed with minimal ecological friction and where protectionist policies are mandatory to prevent further urban sprawl.
 
Discussion and Conclusion
This study provides a rigorous evaluation of the physical-spatial development of Ahvaz through the lens of ecological urbanism, leveraging ten natural and geographical indicators to simulate four distinct development scenarios up to the year 1420. The spatial analysis indicates that approximately 25% of the surrounding land possesses high to very high suitability for development, with the third scenario emerging as the most viable trajectory; unlike the fragmented expansion inherent in the first two scenarios, the third offers an integrated growth pattern in the northwest and southwest that preserves ecological continuity. Realizing an “eco-city” in Ahvaz necessitates a paradigm shift from an economy-oriented growth model to one grounded in environmental responsibility, requiring redefined urban metrics, reformed zoning policies, and heightened public awareness regarding climate risks. In conclusion, the findings advocate for a transformative approach to spatial planning that reinforces green infrastructure and adheres to ecological principles. The proposed model suggests that a balanced, environmentally sensitive development strategy can transcend traditional urbanization, functioning as a restorative mechanism that generates energy, ensures food security, and enhances environmental health, thereby positioning Ahvaz on a clear path toward becoming a sustainable, 21st-century urban ecosystem.