Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Water Conflicts and the Perception of Water Specialists regarding Conflict Management Strategies in ZayandehRud sub-basins

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Agricultural Extension, Communication and Rural Development Department, University of Zanjan, Iran

2 Agricultural Extension and Education Department, Faculty of Agriculture,, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

3 Agricultural Extension, Communication and Rural Development Department, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran

4 Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Water Conflicts and the Perception of Water Specialists regarding Conflict Management Strategies in ZayandehRud sub-basins

Abstract

Introduction
The water crisis is a critical challenge, caused or intensified by various direct factors, particularly, limited resources, climate change, periodic droughts, hydrological conditions, environmental changes, population and consumption growth, the increased demand for water, and excessive use of resources that this will require management. However, water resource management has always had problems due to the uncertainty of weather conditions. Climate change has always been a big challenge for human livelihood, but climate change caused by human activities is a new dimension of these challenges. Evidence shows that climate change will hurt the livelihoods of millions of people around the world. Rural communities in developing countries are more exposed to climate change due to the high dependence of their livelihoods on climate change and their low capacity to adapt to changes. Climate change can create preparations for conflict between different stakeholders by reducing their access to water resources directly and indirectly. The evidence shows that the conflicts caused by the water crisis are increasing in vulnerable areas, including Iran. The ZayandehRud Basin, an important basin in the central plateau of Iran, has faced a crisis in water supply due to various factors. The water supply in the municipality, industry, and agriculture sectors has also faced challenges, causing the intensification of sub-basin conflicts over water supply within a basin between stakeholders. This research aims to assess climate change's impact on the intensification of conflicts caused by the water crisis and conflict management strategies in the upstream and downstream ZayandehRud sub-basins.
 
Methodology
Some areas in the sub-basins of ZayandehRud were assessed in this research. This basin is in the middle part of the central plateau where the ZayandehRud River is located. The ZayandehRud River is the main water supply of the region and on the way to the Gavkhoni wetland, it passes through many plains and lands. The Zayandeh Rud Basin has faced a crisis in water supply in recent years due to human and climatic factors. This crisis has reduced stakeholders’ access to water in the municipal, industry, and agriculture sectors, intensifying conflicts among multiple stakeholders in the basin. This research was conducted in two steps. In the first step, a trend analysis based on a time series of secondary data obtained from synoptic weather stations (Kohrang Township in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province and Isfahan Township) to assess the average annual rainfall and the severity of drought in different years. In the second step, interviews with managers and experts related to water resources management about the occurrence of climate change in the conflict of water in the upstream and downstream sub-basins were evaluated.
 
Findings
The trends of rainfall variables and drought severity were analyzed in two synoptic stations located in the upstream sub-basins (Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province) and the downstream (Isfahan province). The results showed that the average monthly rainfall in the two sub-basins of ZayandehRud fluctuated and did not have the same trend. The amount of precipitation in the Kohrang Station is decreasing and this station has a higher drought intensity than the Isfahan Station. according to the results obtained from the stations of the two cities, the number of snowy days has decreased significantly in Kohrang and Isfahan. These changes have been important in Kohrang city due to the source of water supply for the whole basin, and any change in the amount of precipitation (rain and snow) in this sub-basin will affect the water supply of the whole basin. On the other hand, by examining the views of the respondents, the indicators of environmental factors related to the conflicts caused by the water crisis were categorized as common concepts. According to the codes, experts pointed to environmental factors such as the decrease in rainfall, the decline in snow deposits under the upstream basin, and the increase in temperature and evaporation.
 
Discussion and Conclusion
The assessment of precipitation in two sub-basins showed that the precipitation variabilities and drought intensification have significantly increased the water crisis in the basin in the last few years. Water specialists have also emphasized climate changes, including the decrease in rainfall, reduction of snow deposits, and the increase in temperature as environmental factors affecting the intensity of tensions in the ZayandehRud basin. Finally, many strategies were proposed to manage the conflict in the sub-basins. However, the effectiveness of the strategies requires their appropriateness with the conditions and the nature of the conflict in the basin. Moreover, it is necessary to use several approaches to manage water conflicts that are not only for farmers or sub-basin experts but for all the basin’s stakeholders in water resources management. The stakeholders should also develop their ability to manage water use to maintain the quality and quantity of water consumed. Moreover, their awareness about water saving should be improved. Finally, people's attitudes and behaviors should be directed towards water-saving using different strategies. The most important proposed strategies, listed in order of priority, include: reforming cultivation patterns, creating a new management system for the entire basin, enhancing monitoring of policy and strategy implementation, reshaping stakeholders' attitudes, prioritizing the benefits of stakeholders, and adopting new operational strategies.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

Adano, W. R., Dietz, T., Witsenburg, K., & Zaal, F. (2012). Climate change, violent conflict and local institutions in Kenya’s drylands. Journal of Peace Research, 49(1), 65–80. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343311427344
Aggarwal, A., Frey, H., McDowell, G., Drenkhan, F., Nüsser, M., Racoviteanu, A., & Hoelzle, M. (2022). Adaptation to climate change induced water stress in major glacierized mountain regions. Climate and Development, 14(7), 665–677. https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2021.1971059
AghaKouchak, A., Feldman, D., Hoerling, M., Huxman, T., & Lund, J. (2015). Water and climate: Recognize anthropogenic drought. Nature, 524(7566), 409–411. https://doi.org/10.1038/524409a
Ahmadi, Z., Safavi, H., & Kerachian, R. (2020). Assessment of water resources policies under incomplete information using signaling game, case study: ZayandehRud River Basin. Journal of Iran-Water Resources Research, 16(1), 253–274. (In Persian)
Ahmed, S., & Eklund, E. (2021). Climate change impacts in coastal Bangladesh: Migration, gender and environmental injustice. Asian Affairs, 52(1), 155–174. https://doi.org/10.1080/03068374.2020.1859458
Alexander, S. (2019). What climate-smart agriculture means to members of the Global Alliance for climate-smart agriculture. Future of Food: Journal on Food, Agriculture and Society, 7(1), 21–30. http://www.thefutureoffoodjournal.com/index.php/FOFJ/article/view/174
Al-Muqdadi, S. W. (2022). The spiral of escalating water conflict: The theory of hydro-politics. Water, 14(21), Article 3466. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14213466
Arora, N. K. (2019). Impact of climate change on agriculture production and its sustainable solutions. Environmental Sustainability, 2(2), 95–96. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42398-019-00078-w
Ayeri, O. S., Christian, V. R., Josef, E., & Michael, H. (2012). Local perceptions and responses to climate change and variability: The case of Laikipia District, Kenya. Sustainability, 4(12), 3302–3325. https://doi.org/10.3390/su4123302
Bandyopadhyay, N. (2023). Impact of climate change on water crisis in Gujarat (India). In Ecological footprints of climate change: Adaptive approaches and sustainability (pp. 201–217). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-13489-0_10
Banerjee, R. R. (2015). Farmers’ perception of climate change, impact and adaptation strategies: A case study of four villages in the semi-arid regions of India. Natural Hazards, 75(3), 2829–2845. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1466-z
Barnett, J., & Adger, W. N. (2007). Climate change, human security and violent conflict. Political Geography, 26(6), 639–655. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2007.03.003
Besbes, M., Chahed, J., & Hamdane, A. (2019). The world water issues. In National water security (pp. 1–29). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-10997-9_1
Blondel, A. (2012). Climate change fuelling resource-based conflicts in the Asia-Pacific. Asia-Pacific Human Development Report Background Papers Series, 12.
Brame, J., Li, Q., & Alvarez, P. J. (2011). Nanotechnology-enabled water treatment and reuse: Emerging opportunities and challenges for developing countries. Trends in Food Science & Technology, 22(11), 618–624. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tifs.2011.07.003
Brzoska, M., & Fröhlich, C. (2016). Climate change, migration and violent conflict: Vulnerabilities, pathways and adaptation strategies. Migration and Development, 5(2), 190–210. https://doi.org/10.1080/21632324.2015.1022974
Chukwunaru, C. O. (2016). Conflict prevention, management and resolution in Africa: A case study of the conflict in the Darfur region of Sudan (2003–2013) (Doctoral dissertation, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University). http://hdl.handle.net/10948/14818
Da-boi, K. R. (2020). Environmentality, the politics of climate change and climate justice: The efficacy/inefficacy of institutional/legal frameworks, apocalyptic discourses, and critical education in addressing climate. In C. Znachko, A. Anzellini, K. Parker, & C. Hicks (Eds.), Climate change and human responses (pp. 70–78). Anthropology Publications and Other Works. https://trace.tennessee.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1023&context=utk_anthpubs
Docheshmeh Gorgij, A., Alizamir, M., Kisi, O., & Elshafie, A. (2022). Drought modelling by standard precipitation index (SPI) in a semi-arid climate using deep learning method: Long short-term memory. Neural Computing and Applications, 34(3), 2425–2442. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-021-06485-1
Emami Heidari, H., Jafari, H., & Karami, Gh. (2014). The role of agricultural management in sustaining Zayandeh-rud flow. Journal of Water and Soil, 28(6), 1095–1106. (In Persian)
Esmaeili, M. (2020). Water supply crisis in Zayandehrud watershed; Social issues and solutions to manage it (Demonstrations of 2011 to 2014). Quarterly Journal of Social and Research in Iran, 9(3), 567–585. (In Persian)
Evans, A. (2011). Resource scarcity, climate change and the risk of violent conflict. In World development report 2011. Center on International Cooperation, New York University.
FAO. (2020a). Water use. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. http://www.fao.org/aquastat/en/overview/methodology/water-use
FAO. (2020b). Water use. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/data/query/index.html?lang=en
Gain, A. K., Giupponi, C., & Renaud, F. G. (2012). Climate change adaptation and vulnerability assessment of water resources systems in developing countries: A generalized framework and a feasibility study in Bangladesh. Water, 4(2), 345–366. https://doi.org/10.3390/w4020345
Garg, K., & Soni, D. K. (2023). Introduction to environment studies. Shashwat Publication.
Ghasemi, M., Karamidehkordi, E., & Ebrahimi, A. (2017). Analyzing social actors' conflict in natural resources management and its impact on rural communities (Case study: Borujen County). Journal of Rural Research, 8(4), 635–648. (In Persian)
Gleditsch, N. P. (2012). Whither the weather? Climate change and conflict. Journal of Peace Research, 49(1), 3–9. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343311431288
Gleick, P. (2014). Water, drought, climate change, and conflict in Syria. Weather, Climate, and Society, 6(3), 331–340. https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00059.1
Gleick, P., & Iceland, C. (2018). Water, security and conflict. World Resources Institute. https://www.wri.org/research/water-security-and-conflict
Gohar, A. A., & Cashman, A. (2016). A methodology to assess the impact of climate variability and change on water resources, food security and economic welfare. Agricultural Systems, 147, 51–64. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2016.05.008
Gude, V. G., Nirmalakhandan, N., & Deng, S. (2010). Renewable and sustainable approaches for desalination. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 14(9), 2641–2654. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2010.06.006
Haider, S. (2019). Beneath the surface: The state of the world’s water 2019. WaterAid. https://washmatters.wateraid.org/sites/g/files/jkxoof256/files/beneath-the-surface-the-state-of-the-worlds-water-2019-_0.pdf
Hajian, N., & Hajian, P. (2014). Databases of Zayandeh Rud (pp. 1–273). (In Persian)
Hendrix, C. S., & Salehyan, I. (2012). Climate change, rainfall, and social conflict in Africa. Journal of Peace Research, 49(1), 35–50. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343311426165
Herman, J. D., Quinn, J. D., Steinschneider, S., Giuliani, M., & Fletcher, S. (2020). Climate adaptation as a control problem: Review and perspectives on dynamic water resources planning under uncertainty. Water Resources Research, 56(2), e24389. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR025502
Hoekstra, A. Y. (2014). Water scarcity challenges to business. Nature Climate Change, 4(5), 318. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2205
Hoekstra, A. Y. (2019). The water footprint of modern consumer society (2nd ed.). Routledge.
Homayoun, M., Alireza, S., & McBean, E. E. (2012). La sequía como desastre de origen hídrico; un estudio de caso de Oromieh Lake. Aqua-LAC, 4(2), 7–18. https://doi.org/10.29104/phi-aqualac/2012-v4-2-02
Hsiang, S. M., Burke, M., & Miguel, E. (2013). Quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict. Science, 341(6151), 1235367. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1235367
Ingrao, C., Strippoli, R., Lagioia, G., & Huisingh, D. (2023). Water scarcity in agriculture: An overview of causes, impacts and approaches for reducing the risks. Heliyon, 9(8), e18507. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e18507
Isfahan Statistical Yearbook. (2017). National portal of data and statistical information. https://amar.org.ir (In Persian)
Karamidehkordi, E., Karimi, V., Singh, G., & Naderi, L. (2024). Chapter 16: Water conflicts and sustainable development: Concepts, impacts and management approaches. In S. A. Bandh & F. A. Malla (Eds.), Current directions in water scarcity research 8: Water footprints and sustainable development (pp. 233–244). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-443-23631-0.00016-9
Karimi, V., Karamidehkordi, E., & Tan, Y. (2024). Chapter 15: Water governance, climate change adaptation, and sustainable development: A perspective of the future. In S. A. Bandh & F. A. Malla (Eds.), Current directions in water scarcity research 8: Water footprints and sustainable development (pp. 219–232). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-443-23631-0.00015-7
Krakow, C. A. (2020). The international law and politics of water access: Experiences of displacement, statelessness, and armed conflict. Water, 12(2), 518. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12020518
Mancosu, N., Snyder, R. L., Kyriakakis, G., & Spano, D. (2015). Water scarcity and future challenges for food production. Water, 7(3), 975–992. https://doi.org/10.3390/w7030975
Miyan, M. A. (2015). Droughts in Asian least developed countries: Vulnerability and sustainability. Weather and Climate Extremes, 7, 8–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2014.06.003
Naderi, L., & Karamidehkordi, E. (2019). Perspective of local households toward the social consequences of establishing the Behesht Abad Dam in the origin basin. Rural Research, 9(4), 628–645. https://doi.org/10.22059/jrur.2018.233979.1113 (In Persian)
Naderi, L., Karamidehkordi, E., Badsar, M., & Moghadasd, M. (2022). Analyzing the impact of human and environmental factors on stakeholders' conflict in the Zayandehrood Basin. Environmental Researches, 13(25), 379–398. https://doi.org/10.22034/eiap.2022.159328 (In Persian)
Naderi, L., Karamidehkordi, E., Badsar, M., & Moghadasi, H. (2024). Farmers’ perceptions regarding the impact of climate change and water crises on inter-sub-basin and stakeholders’ conflicts. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 54, 101878. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101878
Ojha, A., Pattnaik, A. K., & Rout, J. (2018). Climate change impacts on natural resources and communities: A geospatial approach for management. Lakes & Reservoirs: Research & Management, 23(1), 34–42. https://doi.org/10.1111/lre.12209
Statistical Centre of Iran. (2021). Population and housing census. https://www.amar.org.ir (In Persian)
Sukanya, S., & Joseph, S. (2023). Climate change impacts on water resources: An overview. In Visualization techniques for climate change with machine learning and artificial intelligence (pp. 55–76). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-3502-3_4
Tatar, M., Papzan, A. H., & Ahmadvand, M. (2018). Agricultural water conflict management in Gawshan basin: Solutions based on cooperation strategy. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Extension and Education Research, 14(1), 91–111. https://doi.org/10.5555/20193131751 (In Persian)
Tugjamba, N., Walkerden, G., & Miller, F. (2021). Climate change impacts on nomadic herders' livelihoods and pastureland ecosystems: A case study from Northeast Mongolia. Regional Environmental Change, 21(1), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-021-01785-8
Vantaggiato, F. P., & Lubell, M. (2022). The benefits of specialized knowledge in polycentric governance. Policy Studies Journal, 50(4), 849–876. https://doi.org/10.1111/psj.12732
Velmurugan, A., Swarnam, P., Subramani, T., Meena, B., & Kaledhonkar, M. (2020). Water demand and salinity. In Desalination: Challenges and opportunities. IntechOpen. https://doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.91865
Verhoeven, H. (2011). Climate change, conflict and development in Sudan: Global neo-Malthusian narratives and local power struggles. Development and Change, 42(3), 679–707. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7660.2011.01707.x
Vörösmarty, C., Hoekstra, A., Bunn, S., Conway, D., & Gupta, J. (2015). What scale for water governance? Science, 349(6247), 478–479. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aab3772
Wang, W., Zhuo, L., Rulli, M. C., & Wu, P. (2022). Limited water scarcity mitigation by expanded interbasin physical and virtual water diversions with uneven economic value added in China. Science of The Total Environment, 847, 157625. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157625
Woodhouse, P., & Muller, M. (2017). Water governance—A historical perspective on current debates. World Development, 92, 225–241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.11.008
Zartman, I. W. (2019). Governance as conflict management. In I. W. Zartman (Ed.), A pioneer in conflict management and area studies (pp. 339–370). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-17870-5_12
Zhang, H. (2016). Sino-Indian water disputes: The coming water wars? Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, 3(2), 155–166. https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1125

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics