دانشگاه بیرجند مطالعات مدیریت توسعه سبز 2981-2402 5 3 2026 09 23 Driving Economic Sustainability: The Roles of Green Investment, Financial Development, and Digitalization اثرات سرمایه‌گذاری سبز، توسعه مالی و دیجیتالی‌شدن بر پایداری اقتصادی 3821 10.22077/jgdms.2025.9534.1344 FA سید کمال صادقی استاد، گروه توسعه اقتصادی و برنامه ریزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران 0009-0009-1034-5321 علی حسن نعمه السویعدی دانشجوی کارشناسی‌ارشد علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران 0009-0000-4353-2638 Journal Article 2025 08 29 Extended AbstractIntroduction Economic sustainability, as a pillar of sustainable development, encompasses the strengthening of economic foundations alongside environmental preservation and effective utilization of human resources. Achieving economic security involves access to sustainable livelihoods, beneficial employment, reliable financial resources, and environmentally compatible technologies. Understanding the determinants of this sustainability and proposing solutions for its realization—especially in developing countries—is of high importance. This study focuses on Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries from 2000 to 2021, examining the role of three key variables—green investment, financial development, and digitalization—in enhancing the economic sustainability index. Given environmental challenges, fossil energy consumption pressures, and opportunities arising from modern technologies, transitioning to a sustainable economy requires integrating financial policies, technological innovation, and environmentally friendly investments. Exploring these relationships can provide a roadmap for policymakers.Materials and MethodsThis study is quantitative-analytical in nature, covering MENA countries—including Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, and others—during the 2000–2021 period. The statistical method used is quantile panel regression with the QARDL approach, which allows for examining relationships across different levels of the dependent variable’s distribution (quantiles) and analyzing nonlinear effects. Short- and long-term impacts of variables were assessed across quantiles 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, and 0.95. Data sources include the World Bank, encompassing trade, agriculture, renewable energy, bank credit, broad money, internet access, and more. Index construction, such as the Economic Sustainability (ES) index, was conducted using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) based on variables like trade, agricultural value added, forestry and fisheries, population growth, inflation, final consumption, and exports. Green Investment (GI) was measured using renewable energy consumption and the ratio of total energy use to GDP; Digitalization (DFI) through indicators like internet usage and mobile subscriptions; and Financial Development (FD) via domestic credit to the private sector and broad money. The QARDL method was selected due to non-normal data, outliers, and the need for analysis across multiple points in the dependent variable’s distribution.Before model estimation, the Levin, Lin & Chu (LLC) test confirmed stationarity of variables at level or first difference. The Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) test verified the absence of severe multicollinearity among independent variables. Given the Jarque-Bera normality test results indicating non-normality and outliers, quantile regression was justified over mean-based methods like OLS.Findings• Model estimates across quantiles (0.25, 0.50, 0.75, 0.95) show that all independent variables have a positive and significant effect on the economic sustainability index, indicating robustness and reliability. The R² values range from 0.89 to 0.93 across quantiles, reflecting excellent model fit.• In the 0.95 quantile—representing countries with the highest economic sustainability—green investment has the greatest impact (coefficient: 0.648), followed by digitalization (0.233) and financial development (0.120).• This positive and significant pattern is consistent across all quantiles, suggesting that these relationships hold at various levels of economic sustainability, though the intensity of effects varies.Key Interpretations• Digitalization enhances productivity, improves financial infrastructure and transparency, and enables the development of modern trade and financial services.• Green investment reduces pollution and optimizes energy use, simultaneously promoting economic growth and environmental protection.• Financial development facilitates access to funding for innovative and green projects, serving as a key driver of economic sustainability.Discussion and ConclusionThe findings clearly demonstrate that policies promoting green investment, financial sector development, and accelerated digital transformation can synergistically play a decisive role in achieving economic sustainability in MENA countries. The study concludes that combining green investment, financial development, and digitalization not only improves economic sustainability but also offers a roadmap for developing countries to achieve sustainable development goals. Economically, increased investment in green infrastructure—such as renewable energy—leads to job creation, economic growth, pollution reduction, biodiversity preservation, and resource optimization. Digitalization boosts productivity, creates new job opportunities, and expands access to global markets, enhancing national competitiveness. Financial development supports sustainability by improving access to financial services and markets, facilitating funding for sustainable projects, and managing risks.Key Recommendations• Governments should offer financial incentives and supportive policies for green projects.• Digital infrastructure and modern technologies should be strengthened to ensure affordable and widespread access to services.• Financial markets should be developed, and innovative financing tools for environmentally friendly projects introduced.• Integrated policies that simultaneously strengthen all three factors can generate synergistic effects and accelerate progress toward Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).The study’s findings on the positive impact of green investment align with previous research, and its results regarding digitalization and financial development are consistent with similar studies. By focusing on the MENA region and employing advanced econometric methods, this research provides a comprehensive understanding of how modern economic factors interact to achieve sustainability.Keywords: Economic Sustainability, Green Investment, Financial Development, Digitalization, Quantile Regression (QARDL), MENA Countries پایداری نظام اقتصادی مفهومی چندبعدی است که به تقویت ساختارهای اقتصادی و تحقق امنیت اقتصادی از طریق ایجاد معیشت پایدار، اشتغال مولد، استقرار نظام مالی کارآمد و توسعه فناوری‌های سازگار با محیط‌زیست اشاره دارد؛ امری که مستلزم بهره‌گیری مؤثر از سرمایه انسانی است. بنابراین درک عوامل تعیین‌‌کننده و ارائه راهکار جهت پایداری اقتصادی، مقوله‌ای مهم تلقی می‌‌گردد. بر این اساس، هدف از مطالعه حاضر، بررسی اثرات سرمایه‌گذاری سبز، توسعه مالی، دیجیتالی‌شدن بر پایداری اقتصادی با استفاده از رویکرد اقتصاد سنجی پانل کوانتایل (QARDL) طی دوره زمانی 2000-2021 در کشورهای خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا می‌باشد. از ترکیب متغیرهای تجارت، کشاورزی، جنگلداری و ماهیگیری، ارزش افزوده، رشد جمعیت، نرخ تورم، مخارج مصارف نهایی و صادرات کالا و خدمات با بهره گیری از روش تجزیه و تحلیل مولفه های اصلی(PCA)، شاخص کلی پایداری اقتصادی استخراج شده است. یافته‌ها حاکی از آن است که در تمامی چندک‌های 25/0، 50/0، 75/0 و 95/0، سرمایه‌گذاری سبز، توسعه مالی، دیجیتالی‌شدن، تأثیر مثبت و معنی‌داری بر شاخص پایداری اقتصادی داشته است و نشان‌دهنده استحکام نتایج تحقیق است. در چندک 95/0 افزایش یک واحدی سرمایه‌گذاری سبز، توسعه مالی، دیجیتالی‌شدن به ترتیب موجب افزایش 648/0، 120/0 و 233/0 واحدی شاخص پایداری اقتصادی شده است و ضریب تاثیری گذاری سرمایه گذاری سبز بر شاخص پایداری اقتصادی در این چندک نسبت به سایر متغیرها بیشتر است. این یافته‌ها می‌تواند نقشه راهی برای کشورهای در حال توسعه ایجاد کند تا ازدیجیتالی شدن، سرمایه‌گذاری سبز و توسعه مالی در بخش‌های تولیدی برای دستیابی به اهداف توسعه پایدار استفاده نمایند.کلمات کلیدی: دیجیتالی‌شدن، توسعه مالی، سرمایه‌گذاری سبز، روش اقتصادسنجی کوانتایل