دانشگاه بیرجند مطالعات مدیریت توسعه سبز 2981-2402 4 4 2025 12 22 Foresight-Based Development of the Date Processing Industry (Case Study: Sistan and Baluchestan Province) آینده‌نگاری توسعه صنعت فرآوری خرما (مطالعه موردی: استان سیستان و بلوچستان) 49 72 3336 10.22077/jgdms.2025.8476.1220 FA سهیلا جشاری دانشجوی دکترا اقتصاد کشاورزی گرایش اقتصاد تولید و مدیریت واحدهای کشاورزی دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و حسابداری دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان ابراهیم مرادی دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و حسابداری دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران مرضیه اسفندیاری دانشیار گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و حسابداری دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران Journal Article 2024 11 25 <strong>Introduction</strong> Sistan and Baluchestan Province possesses significant potential in the production of dates and tropical fruits. However, an examination of the province’s development indicators and a comparison with national and interprovincial averages indicate that development programs have paid limited attention to establishing an economy grounded in the region’s inherent capacities. Prioritizing the development of date processing industries in Sistan and Baluchestan using a foresight-oriented approach can play an important role in shaping the province’s future development trajectory. Accordingly, this study aims to identify key driving forces and develop alternative scenarios and effective strategies for the development of the date processing industry. To this end, the main drivers were first identified by experts in date cultivation and related industries in the province. Data were then analyzed using a cross-impact matrix and MICMAC software. Finally, scenarios were developed through the expert panel method using Wizard scenario software. The findings indicate that, in the most probable scenario, appropriate infrastructure (water, electricity, and gas) is in a probable condition, road access is in a pessimistic condition, business rules and regulations are in an optimistic condition, investor willingness is in a pessimistic condition, and access to domestic and foreign markets is in an optimistic condition. Based on these results, the establishment of specialized date industrial towns with a facilitative approach to launching date processing industries, along with reforms in rules and regulations to encourage investment, is recommended for the province.   <strong>Methodology</strong> In this study, the factors influencing the development of date processing industries in Sistan and Baluchestan Province were first identified through interviews and questionnaires administered over a two-month period to 15 experts, including specialists from the Provincial Department of Agricultural Jihad, experts from industrial towns in Zahedan, and traders active in the date industry. This process resulted in the identification of 10 key drivers. An open-ended questionnaire was subsequently completed by the experts to assess these factors. The collected data were analyzed using MICMAC software and a cross-impact matrix to evaluate the influence and dependence of each driver relative to the others. Correlations were scored on a scale from 0 (no influence) to 3 (strong influence). A 10×10 matrix with a filling rate of 85% was constructed, and both direct and indirect effects among the drivers were examined, leading to the identification of five key drivers. In the next stage, a second questionnaire was distributed among date industry specialists to assess these drivers under probable, optimistic, and pessimistic conditions, as well as their roles as strong, moderate, or weak constraints or reinforcers. Scenario development was then carried out using Wizard scenario software, resulting in three alternative scenarios for the development of date processing industries in the province. The research process included identifying initial drivers, conducting expert Delphi analysis using interaction matrices, performing structural analysis with MICMAC software, and generating scenarios using Wizard software.   <strong>Findings</strong> Among the 10 identified drivers, five were positioned in the first region of the influence–dependence matrix, indicating that their influence was greater than their dependence. These drivers include the development of appropriate infrastructure (water, electricity, and gas), access to roads, business rules and regulations, investor willingness to invest, and access to domestic and foreign markets. Factors such as improving the quality of date production and training a skilled workforce also demonstrated high levels of influence relative to other factors. The interaction analysis method employed in this study enabled the evaluation of plausible future scenarios and facilitated the systematic analysis of expert judgments. Among the three developed scenarios, the first scenario—characterized by probable conditions for infrastructure, pessimistic conditions for road access and investor willingness, and optimistic conditions for business regulations and market access—exhibited the highest probability of occurrence and was identified as the most likely future scenario.   <strong>Discussion and Conclusion</strong> Dates are among the country’s most important agricultural products and possess substantial export potential. However, the lack of complementary industries, insufficient attention to processing, limited cold storage facilities, and inadequate packaging have negatively affected both domestic consumption and exports, posing significant challenges for farmers in Sistan and Baluchestan Province. Developing a comprehensive date value chain and producing high value-added by-products can enhance exports and increase farmers’ incomes, particularly in a region characterized by high unemployment rates. The development of the date processing industry, expansion of the date value chain, and establishment of internationally standardized processing industries for date by-products are therefore of critical importance. This study examined the prioritization of development drivers for date processing industries in Sistan and Baluchestan using a foresight-based approach. Based on expert interviews and cross-impact matrix analysis of 10 drivers, three scenarios were developed focusing on five key drivers: infrastructure development, road access, business rules and regulations, investor willingness, and access to domestic and foreign markets. The first scenario, with a probability of 53.19%, ranked highest. In this scenario, infrastructure is in a probable state, road access and investor willingness are pessimistic, and business regulations and market access are optimistic. Accordingly, policy measures such as reforming laws and regulations, facilitating access to domestic and international markets, and improving infrastructure should be prioritized in provincial development plans for expanding date-based industries. Given the strong export potential of dates, sustained access to target markets is essential. Based on the findings, strategies such as establishing specialized date industrial towns with a facilitative approach to launching processing industries and reforming regulations to encourage investment in the date processing sector are strongly recommended. استان سیستان و بلوچستان دارای قابلیت‌هایی در زمینه خرما و میوه‌های گرمسیری است. از سوی دیگر نگاهی به شاخص‌های توسعه استان و مقایسه با میانگین کشور و سایر استان‌ها نشان‌می‌دهد که در برنامه‌های استان به‌منظور تحقق اهداف توسعه به استقرار فعالیت‌های اقتصادی مبتنی بر پتانسیل‌های استان توجه نشده است. اولویت‌بندی پیشران‌های توسعه صنایع فرآوری خرما در سیستان و بلوچستان با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی می‌تواند در ترسیم چشم انداز استان در مسیر توسعه مؤثر باشد. از این رو در مطالعه حاضر، پس از شناسایی پیشران‌ها، سناریوهای مختلف تدوین و راهبردهای مؤثر برای توسعه صنعت فراوری خرما ارائه شده‌است. برای این منظور ابتدا پیشران‌های مؤثر توسط پانزده نفر از خبرگان حوزه کشت و صنعت خرما در استان شناسایی و سپس تجزیه‌وتحلیل اطلاعات به وسیله ماتریس آثار متقابل و نرم‌افزار میک‌مک انجام شد. در نهایت سناریوها با استفاده از روش پنل خبرگان و با نرم‌افزار سناریو ویزارد طراحی شده‌است. طبق یافته‌های مطالعه در سناریوی برگزیده، زیر ساخت‌های مناسب (آب، برق، گاز) در شرایط محتمل، پیشران دسترسی به جاده‌ها در شرایط بدبینانه، قوانین و مقررات کسب و کار در شرایط خوش‌بینانه، تمایل افراد سرمایه‌گذار جهت سرمایه‌گذاری در شرایط بدبینانه و دسترسی به بازارهای داخلی و خارجی در شرایط خوش‌بینانه قرار دارد. بنابراین احداث شهرک‌های صنعتی تخصصی خرما با رویکردی مبتنی بر تسهیل در راه اندازی صنایع فراوری خرما، اصلاح قوانین و مقررات به‌منظور تشویق سرمایه‌گذاران صنعت فراوری خرما و جهت استقرار صنعت فراوری خرما در استان پیشنهاد می‌شود. https://gmd.birjand.ac.ir/article_3336_f8edc7ccbc3481036282d3ee733e6878.pdf