دانشگاه بیرجند مطالعات مدیریت توسعه سبز 2981-2402 3 2 2024 09 22 Food Self-Sufficiency and Water Resources: A Return to Iran's Future Challenges خودکفایی غذایی و منابع آب؛ بازگشت به چالش آینده ایران 43 57 3114 10.22077/jgdms.2024.3114 FA حسن افراخته گروه جغرافیای انسانی، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران محمد حجی پور گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه بیرجند، بیرجند، ایران Journal Article 2024 05 03 Introduction Iran possesses 0.3% of the world's renewable water resources, while hosting 1% of the global population. Over the past few decades, water consumption in Iran has consistently exceeded the initial water stress threshold (i.e., one-fourth of total renewable water) by nearly four times. Currently, the average annual water consumption in Iran is estimated at around 96 billion cubic meters, which is approximately 8% more than the total renewable water resources of Iran (89 billion cubic meters) and about 50% higher than the scarcity threshold. More than half of the rural population (10.4 million people) lives in areas of high-water stress (4 million people) and in regions of acute water stress (6.4 million people). If the current conditions persist, in addition to the aforementioned economic and social issues, further harm will be inflicted on the environment, making it increasingly difficult to restore the environment to its normal state. On average, 90% of the country's water consumption is allocated to the agricultural sector, 7% to urban-domestic use, and 3% to industry. Consequently, the increase in national water consumption is often justified by the rising water usage in agriculture. Thus, urban and industrial water consumption, despite having relatively higher allocation priorities based on necessity, constitutes only one-tenth of total water consumption. Therefore, transformative measures in the urban and industrial sectors inherently cannot have a significant impact on the national water crisis. Therefore, reducing water consumption in agriculture is considered the only viable option to address the water crisis in Iran, a situation that contradicts the country's goal of food self-sufficiency. A decline in agricultural activities in Iran may have significant repercussions, not only for food security but also for the employment of approximately four million farmers, the majority of whom are over fifty years old and lack other professional skills. Furthermore, a reduction in agricultural activities will lead to unemployment in other sectors of the economy. The objective of this research is to study the available water resources and water needs of the country in relation to food requirements, utilizing documentary data and qualitative analysis. Subsequently, potential solutions to address the national water crisis will be explored. Finally, the study will address the question of whether food self-sufficiency is achievable for Iran without depleting its water resources. Methodology This research employs a qualitative and analytical approach to examine the challenges of food self-sufficiency and water resources in Iran. The necessary data were collected from documentary sources and previous studies and were utilized to analyze the current state of water and food needs in the country. In the first phase, information regarding renewable water resources and water consumption across various sectors, particularly agriculture, was reviewed. Using climatic and hydrological data from historical documents, the current situation and future projections were analyzed. Subsequently, the country’s food needs were studied based on demographic and economic variables through analytical models. In the second phase, potential solutions to address the water crisis and food security were explored from the perspectives of governance and policymaking. This examination included an assessment of modern irrigation techniques, greenhouse development, and virtual water trade. Data analysis was conducted using statistical and modeling software, and the findings were discussed to provide practical recommendations for improving water resource management and food security in Iran. This approach aims to identify existing barriers and offer effective strategies to achieve food security objectives and sustainable water resource management in the country. Findings The long-term average annual rainfall in Iran from 1980 to 2010 (1359-1389) is approximately 236 millimeters, equivalent to 382 billion cubic meters of water. Between 1980 and 2010, the average rainfall decreased by 1.5 millimeters per year. However, not all regions have been affected equally, with the western and northwestern parts of Iran showing the most significant reductions in rainfall. Overall, about a quarter of the country has experienced considerable rainfall decline. In addition to this decrease in rainfall, the average annual temperature in Iran has increased by 0.4 degrees Celsius per decade, leading to greater water loss through evaporation and transpiration. As a result of the combined effects of these two factors, the available water in Iran has decreased from an average of 125 billion cubic meters to 89 billion cubic meters. Currently, 23% of Iran's total area is under critical groundwater stress, and 24% is under high water stress. Furthermore, 34% of the irrigated lands in Iran (including agricultural and horticultural products) are located in areas classified as experiencing critical stress, 19% in areas with high stress, and 47% in areas with no stress or minimal groundwater stress. Over the past three decades, despite a significant decline in the total fertility rate, Iran's population has increased by nearly one million people per year, and it is projected to exceed 87 million by 2025. This indicates that the annual population growth rate (P) will decrease from 1.1% in 2018 to 0.7% by 2025. Based on expected population trends, per capita income, and future food prices, it is anticipated that Iran's total food demand in monetary terms will reach $46 billion (in constant dollars) by 2025. Consequently, it can be inferred that a significant gap will exist between the country's water needs and the requirements for food production, a challenge that cannot be easily overcome without careful planning. Discussion and Conclusion Considering the realities of Iran's water and soil landscape, it can be concluded that the hope for long-term self-sufficiency is an unrealistic notion. Instead of focusing on self-sufficiency, policymakers should prioritize ensuring the country's food security, which can be achieved through the optimal utilization of water and soil resources, alongside strengthening other sectors of the economy and increasing food imports. In today's world, possessing implicit knowledge is fundamental to competitiveness and the success of nations. Relying solely on physical capital for sustainable economic growth will not yield desired outcomes; rather, emphasis must be placed on educating human capital and fostering a knowledge-based economy. The total food requirements of the country (amounting to $46 billion overall, with $18 billion in annual imports) cannot be compared to the losses incurred from the decline of surface and groundwater resources in various aspects. Therefore, a strategic approach that integrates food security with sustainable resource management and economic diversification is essential for overcoming these challenges. افزایش جمعیت در کنار تغییرات اقلیمی برای ایران تبعات عدیده‌ای در زمینه آب و غذا داشته و با توجه به تشدید آن، دغدغه آینده را دوچندان می‌کند؛ ضرورت بازنگری در منطق و رویه‌های نظام حکمرانی و سیاست‌گذاری کشور با نگاه به آینده، امری خطیر و مطالبه‌ای جدی است. متوسط مصرف سالانه آب در ایران حدود 96 میلیارد متر مکعب است که این رقم، حدود 8 درصد بیشتر از کل منابع آب تجدیدپذیر ایران (89 میلیارد مترمکعب) است. بدین‌سان، بین نیاز آبی و عرضه پایدار آب، شکاف بزرگی به وجود آمده که می‌تواند کشور را به‌سمت بحران اجتماعی و محیط زیستی با تأثیر تعیین‌کننده بر رفاه نسل‌های کنونی و آینده به پیش ببرد. در این پژوهش، با به‌کارگیری داده‌های اسنادی و تحلیل کیفی و تجربی آنها، نخست، آب در دسترس و نیاز آبی کشور درباره نیاز غذایی مطالعه شد. آنگاه، راه حل‌های احتمالی مقابله با بحران آب از منظر حکمروایی مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. نتیجه نشان داد که علاوه بر محدودیت‌های شناخته شده آبی، منابع زمین نیز موانع قابل‌توجهی برای تولید پایدار غذا برای جمعیت روبه‌رشد ایران ایجاد می‌کند؛ نوسازی سیستم آبیاری، به‌کارگیری سیستم گلخانه‌ای و ساختن سدهای بیشتر نمی‌تواند به‌روش پایدار و مقرون به صرفه ای بحران آبی کشور را حل کند؛ در نتیجه، امید به خودکفایی در درازمدت، چشم‌انداز مطلوبی نخواهد داشت، به‌جای آن، سیاست‌گذاران باید هدف اصلی خود را تضمین امنیت غذایی کشور قرار دهند که می‌توان ضمن بهره برداری بهینه از منابع آب و خاک، تقویت سایر بخش‌های اقتصاد و امکان واردات کالاهای آب‌بر و نیز تولید این کالاها در نواحی پرآبِ جهان با سرمایه‌گذاری مشترک، به آن دست‌یافت.

https://gmd.birjand.ac.ir/article_3114_b4fb8dddfb8c135d2b8f8411b47e75dd.pdf